Last week, Michael Carter stood to say to our supervisors, “Additional taxes and fees… continue to put a noose around the necks of the people of Goochland.”

These words were affecting, as were those spoken by others who agreed that there are many in this county who simply cannot bear a heavier tax burden.

These fears were eased as supervisors voted to retain the current tax rate.

These mercurial economic times have taken their toll on many of us; nerves are raw and bills are mounting, and relief seems far away.

The bad news, according to County Administrator Rebecca Dickson, is that we are right to be concerned: Our county’s economic future won’t fully brighten for years.

And now that Goochland’s revenues will not be replenished by higher real estate taxes, where will we get the money needed for services and facilities?

Board Chairman William E. Quarles Jr. asked Dickson, “How do we recoup the monies that you remove… how would fund balance look for items that may be required?”

Dickson said there are two ways that fund balance is built up: Spending below budgeted revenue or budgeting additions to the fund.

And, she added, considering how low revenues have been, “We won’t be adding to fund balance this year, and I don’t think we’ll be adding to fund balance in 2011. I don’t expect we’ll be adding to fund balance in the next two years.”

But we will be taking from it—after voting against a tax increase, supervisors approved using $800,000 from fund balance to address next year’s deficits. Dickson anticipates that the county will have to use $2 million more from fund balance over the next two years.

Such deductions would take fund balance from about $14 million down to $11 million, she said.

Dickson said that fund balance is the only source of funds for unanticipated costs: “That scenario could put us in jeopardy.”

Supervisor James W. Eads said at last week’s meeting that he is opposed to taking money out of fund balance to balance the budget.

“That is as good as burning furniture in your house to keep warm,” he said.

So how are we going to pay our bills?

If the county cannot rely on increased revenues or a growing fund balance to cover its costs, then it will have to slash those costs deeply.

Figuring out where to wield those cuts is likely going to be a bloody task, one that Dickson said that the county will accomplish by June 1.

And while Goochland is celebrating a flat tax rate, there are those that are already thinking of how reductions could affect the county’s well-being.

“We have been working with the school system a long time trying to get up to top-notch, and our sheriff’s department and fire-rescue is second to none,” said Supervisor Andrew Pryor. “I can’t see cutting public safety and schools.”

But if the revenue isn’t there, and fund balance disappears, such cuts may be inevitable.

Goochland’s fund balance has long been misunderstood, and has, among other things, been referred to as a “rainy day fund.”

Dickson, who has been widely praised for her fiscal acumen, has offered several strategies for salvaging and strengthening the county’s fund balance, but it doesn’t yet seem that the county is heeding these.

And until it does, the education of Goochland’s children and the safety of its citizens may well, over the next few years, endure an escalating storm.